Online Course $49: Your First Step Toward a Texas License to Carry (LTC)!
⚠️IMPORTANT: Educational Disclaimer. This post presents research on concealed carry and crime for informational purposes only. It is not legal advice. Consult a licensed Texas attorney for legal questions. All claims are cited in full sources. See references below for independent verification of research and Texas DPS data.
Myth: “If more people carry concealed weapons, we’ll see a spike in violence. More guns on the street mean more accidents, more road rage incidents, more chaos.” It sounds intuitive when read aloud. But what does the actual evidence show?
Evidence: Deterrence Effect. The relationship between concealed carry and crime is complex, but the evidence points in one direction: the predicted chaos from increased carry hasn’t materialized. One of the most robust findings in criminological research is the deterrence effect, or when potential criminals believe armed citizens are present, they’re less likely to commit violent crimes.[1][2] The mechanism is straightforward. Criminals prefer unarmed targets or soft targets. When a criminal can’t predict whether someone is armed, their risk calculus shifts. Research by Lott & colleagues (2024) found measurable crime decreases in states with higher permit rates.[2] This principle isn’t theoretical. Peer-reviewed studies across multiple jurisdictions support it.[1][2]
Texas Post-2021: Real-World Test. Texas provides the clearest recent case study. When HB 1927 went into effect in September 2021, it removed the licensing requirement for eligible residents to carry. This created a natural experiment for what happens to crime when carry becomes more common.
Result: No chaos surge. The predicted spike in accidents, road rage escalations, and negligent shootings didn’t happen. Since HB 1927, Texas’s violent crime shows no increase. 2023 data show 5.1% violent crime decrease from 2022. Post-HB 1927 data show mixed results across jurisdictions. Some decreases, some slight increases are attributable to post-pandemic crime trends, policing changes, and socioeconomic shifts. Fundamentally, no evidence of the predicted chaos.[3][4][5]
Key Finding: The predicted correlation between permitless carry and increased violence didn’t appear.
The Research Landscape: Honest Assessment. The research on carry laws and crime is genuinely contested.[6][7][8] Different studies using different methodologies and time periods reach different conclusions. Some researchers (Johns Hopkins, RAND, NBER) found specific crime increases in particular contexts. Johns Hopkins, for example, found a 32% increase in gun assaults when training requirements were dropped.[6] These findings are rigorous and shouldn’t be dismissed. However, even this opposing research doesn’t support the “more carry = universal chaos” narrative. Johns Hopkins and others found context-dependent effects, not automatic violence increases. The debate among researchers is about magnitude and mechanisms, not about whether chaos erupts when carry becomes common.
Why Licensed Carriers Are Different: The intuition that “more guns = more accidents” could make sense on the surface. The evidence reveals a key difference. Licensed carriers undergo safety training and carry deliberately. They’re not the population driving accidental shootings.
- Most firearm accidents are preventable and involve unsecured firearms (children finding them), improper storage, intoxication, or criminal activity.[3] Licensed and trained carriers actively avoid these scenarios through training emphasizing safe storage, responsible carry, and de-escalation.
- Road rage shootings by licensed carriers are extremely rare. Available data show no increase in carry-permitting states.[3] The population committing these crimes consists primarily of people with criminal histories (legally prohibited from carrying) or those carrying illegally.
Accountability Factor: Licensed carriers face civil liability, criminal prosecution, and loss of rights—powerful incentives for restraint. Defensive gun use by licensed carriers rarely results in charges because they’re typically clearly lawful.
What Actually Predicts Crime: Research consistently shows that violent crime correlates with:
- Socioeconomic factors (poverty, inequality, unemployment)
- Drug markets and gang activity
- Policing levels and community trust
- Substance abuse rates
- Historical crime trends
Concealed carry prevalence is not on this list. When carry appears in criminological models, it doesn’t show up as a significant driver of violent crime rates.
The Bottom Line: The catastrophe opponents predicted widespread chaos, rampant accidents, or proliferating road rage shootings simply hasn’t occurred.[3][4][5] Whether carry actively reduces crime (as Lott’s research suggests) or has more complex effects (as Johns Hopkins researchers argue), neither side’s research supports the “more carry = inevitable chaos” claim. That absence of predicted harm is powerful evidence against the myth.
Carry Responsibly: If you’re considering a License to Carry in Texas, understand what the evidence shows: trained, licensed carriers operating within legal frameworks don’t drive crime increases. They’re part of a safety-conscious, legally accountable community. Training matters. Knowledge matters. Legal accountability matters. The evidence proves these factors create a responsible population and, at a minimum, not the threat opponents predicted.
Ready to carry responsibly in Texas? Online LTC covers legal requirements, safety principles, use-of-force law, and judgment training that separates responsible carriers from reckless ones.
Get started now at the link below. Click “enroll now”. The page will open to the Texas Carry Academy enrollment portal.
⚠️IMPORTANT: Educational Disclaimer. This post presents research on concealed carry and crime for informational purposes only. It is not legal advice. Consult a licensed Texas attorney for legal questions. All claims are cited in full sources. See references below for independent verification of research and Texas DPS data.
- Handgun Licensing | Department of Public Safety
- State Reciprocity Information | Department of Public Safety
References:
- [1] Lott, J. R., & Mustard, D. B. (1997). Crime, deterrence, and right-to-carry concealed handguns. Journal of Legal Studies, 26(1), 1–68. https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1150&context=law_and_economics
- [2] Lott, J. R., Moody, C., & Wang, R. (2024). How does concealed carrying of weapons affect violent crime? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4849655
- [3] Texas Department of Public Safety. (2023). Crime in Texas 2022 annual report [PDF]. https://www.dps.texas.gov/sites/default/files/documents/crimereports/22/2022cit.pdf
- [4] Texas Department of Public Safety. (2024). Crime in Texas 2023 annual report [PDF]. https://www.dps.texas.gov/sites/default/files/documents/crimereports/23/2023cit.pdf
- [5] Texas Department of Public Safety. (2022). Crime in Texas 2021 annual report [PDF]. https://www.dps.texas.gov/sites/default/files/documents/crimereports/21/2021cit.pdf
- [6] Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Gun Violence Solutions. (2024, March 26). Study finds that dropping training requirement to obtain concealed carry permit associated with significant increase in gun assaults. https://publichealth.jhu.edu/center-for-gun-violence-solutions/2023/study-finds-that-dropping-training-requirement-to-obtain-con
- [7] Donohue, J. J., Zhang, X., & Weber, K. D. (2023). Why does right-to-carry cause violent crime to increase? (NBER Working Paper No. 30190). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30190/w30190.pdf
- [8] Bondy, M., Rajan, S., & Kivisto, A. J. (2023). Estimating the effect of U.S. concealed carry laws on gun homicides. Criminology & Criminal Justice, 23(2), 149–167. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0144818823000194
